Tuesday is shaping up to be one of those days where the market feels like it's holding its breath. U.S. stock futures are pointing lower across the board, with the Dow Jones, S&P 500, and Nasdaq 100 all set to open in the red. This follows Monday's downbeat session, and there's no shortage of things to worry about: oil prices are spiking on Middle East tensions, the Fed is looking increasingly likely to hike rates next month, and a handful of big tech names are about to drop their earnings after the bell.
Let's start with the geopolitical stuff, because that's what's really moving the needle this morning. President Donald Trump has threatened further strikes against Iran, while ruling out nuclear action against an opponent he described as "totally defeated." That's a pretty loaded statement, and the market is reacting accordingly. Brent crude futures jumped 4.46% to $92.31 a barrel, which is a big move and a clear sign that investors are pricing in more instability in the region. Higher oil prices tend to be a drag on the economy, and they're certainly not helping sentiment today.
Meanwhile, Trump also weighed in on the tech infrastructure front, warning that communities rejecting AI data centers risk being "backwards and poor." It's a striking comment, and it underscores how central AI has become to the administration's economic vision. But it also adds a layer of political uncertainty to the AI trade, which has been a major driver of market gains this year.
On the earnings front, it's a busy day. After the closing bell, we'll hear from Palo Alto Networks (PANW), Dell Technologies (DELL), and MongoDB (MDB). These are all significant names, and their results could set the tone for the tech sector in the coming weeks. Palo Alto and Dell are particularly interesting given the cybersecurity and AI infrastructure angles, while MongoDB is a bellwether for cloud software spending.
In the bond market, the 10-year Treasury yield is at 4.79%, and the two-year is at 4.36%. Those are elevated levels, and they reflect growing expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep tightening. According to the CME Group's FedWatch tool, markets are pricing in a 66.4% likelihood of a rate hike at the September meeting. That's a significant probability, and it's putting pressure on stocks, especially growth names that are sensitive to higher discount rates.
Here's a quick snapshot of where the major indices stood in premarket trading:
The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) and Invesco QQQ Trust ETF (QQQ), which track the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100, respectively, were both lower in premarket. SPY was down 0.59% at $762.55, while QQQ declined 1.02% to $709.48.
Stocks in Focus
Pyxis Tankers
Pyxis Tankers Inc. (PXS) tumbled 10.26% despite reporting better-than-expected earnings for the second quarter. The company posted quarterly earnings of 27 cents per share, beating the analyst consensus estimate of 20 cents per share. So why the drop? Sometimes good news isn't enough when the broader market is selling off, and this looks like one of those cases. The stock's price trend is strong in the short, long, and medium terms, with a moderate growth score, according to market data, but that didn't shield it from today's selloff.
Cango
Cango Inc. (CANG) dropped 10.46% after posting downbeat results for the second quarter, which came out after the closing bell on Monday. The company's price trend is weak in the long and medium terms but strong in the short term, according to market data. Investors are clearly not impressed with the latest numbers, and the stock is paying the price.
Cerebras Systems
Cerebras Systems Inc. (CBRS) fell 1.76% despite announcing a new 165 MW AI data centre in Mikkeli, Finland, developed in partnership with Compute Nordic Finland. That's a significant investment in AI infrastructure, but the market seems to be taking a "show me" approach. The stock's price trend is weak in the short, long, and medium terms, according to market data, which suggests investors are still cautious about the company's near-term prospects.
Amber International Holding
Amber International Holding Ltd. (AMBR) soared 17.24% as it announced a transformation into an agentic AI company, launching its new personal finance AI agent, Ambre, and marketing AI agent, MIA. That's a big pivot, and the market is rewarding it. The stock's price trend is weak in the short, long, and medium terms, according to market data, but today's move suggests investors see potential in the new direction.
Nvidia
Nvidia Corp. (NVDA) fell 1.31% following its investments of $3.5 billion in convertible bonds to deepen its relationship with MediaTek. That's a substantial commitment, and it's part of Nvidia's broader strategy to expand its footprint in the chip industry. The stock's price trend is strong in the long, short, and medium terms with a good quality score, according to market data, but even Nvidia isn't immune to today's broader selloff.
Cues From Last Session
Monday's session was a mixed bag. Communication services, utilities, and industrials suffered the biggest drops, while energy and information technology stocks defied the broader trend to finish higher. Most S&P 500 sectors declined as U.S. markets broadly fell, but the tech and energy pockets showed some resilience.
Insights From Analysts
Jeremy Siegel, the Wharton professor and market sage, is feeling pretty good about the economy and stocks, and he's got some specific reasons why. He's optimistic largely because of Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh's policy approach and the robust artificial intelligence investments that are driving corporate earnings.
Siegel praised Warsh's recent Jackson Hole speech for its "explicit recognition that money supply and bank credit matter for the Fed's inflation outlook." He notes that Warsh correctly identifies that the current 3.6% federal funds rate and 7% to 8% bank credit expansion are "hardly consistent with a monetary policy crushing demand." In other words, the Fed isn't being as restrictive as some might think, and that's a good thing for growth.
Looking at the broader stock market, Siegel remains highly confident, pointing to a "very strong fundamental backdrop from the AI story powering the equity market." He emphasizes that recent strong performances by tech giants like Nvidia and Salesforce Inc. (CRM) prove the AI investment cycle still has plenty of momentum. These companies are not just hype; they're delivering real earnings growth, and that's what matters.
Despite anticipating a slight slowdown after a period of exceptional corporate profits, Siegel reassures investors that "some deceleration is inevitable, but that does not mean the earnings outlook is deteriorating." It's a nuanced take, but the bottom line is he thinks the market can handle a bit of a cooldown without falling apart.
Ultimately, Siegel concludes that "the market continues to demonstrate considerable resilience and I remain constructive," leaving the timing of Warsh's next rate hike as the primary uncertainty. So the big question isn't whether the market will keep climbing, but when the Fed will pull the trigger again.
Upcoming Economic Data
Here's what investors will be keeping an eye on Tuesday. August's flash S&P U.S. manufacturing PMI data will be released by 9:45 a.m., while August's ISM manufacturing PMI, July's construction spending, and July's JOLTS job openings data will all be out by 10:00 a.m. ET. These numbers will give us a fresh read on the health of the manufacturing sector and the labor market, and they could influence the Fed's decision-making ahead of the September meeting.
Commodities, Crypto, And Global Equity Markets
Crude Oil WTI futures were trading higher in the early New York session, up 2.37% to hover around $87.79 per barrel. That's a notable jump, and it's being driven by the same geopolitical tensions that are pushing Brent higher.
Gold Spot US Dollar fell 1.61% to hover around $4,377.83 per ounce. The U.S. Dollar Index spot was 0.13% higher at the 99.5620 level. So we're seeing a bit of a shift away from safe havens like gold, which is interesting given the geopolitical uncertainty.
Meanwhile, Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) was trading 1.10% lower at $77,826.20 per coin over the last 24 hours. Crypto is having a rough day, but it's not alone.
Asian markets were lower on Tuesday except South Korea's Kospi. China's CSI 300, Australia's ASX 200, India's Nifty 50, Hong Kong's Hang Seng, and Japan's Nikkei 225 indices all fell. European markets were also lower in early trading. It's a global risk-off day, and that's something to keep in mind as we head into the U.S. open.
