Hightower Advisors' chief investment strategist Stephanie Link said Monday that she doesn't expect the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates in September, even as market-implied odds of a hike have climbed sharply since Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's Jackson Hole speech.
This Strategist Is Betting Against a September Fed Rate Hike as Markets Turn Hawkish After Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole Speech: 'It's Not Going to be Material'
MarketDash
Hightower Advisors' Stephanie Link said she doesn't expect the Fed to raise interest rates in September, despite rising odds of a hike.
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'25 Basis Points Is Not Going to Hurt That Much'
"I don't think he's going to do it in September, and I don't think it matters, though 25 basis points is not going to hurt that much," Link said on CNBC.
"I think we will probably be relieved one way or another just to get it behind us," Link said when asked about the market's reaction if the Fed does hike rates in its upcoming meeting.
"I just don't know if they need to do it right now. Maybe they do it in December, but I think at the end of the day it's not going to be material," Link added.
Link said Warsh may be waiting to see whether the artificial intelligence investment boom translates into stronger productivity growth before making a move. She also pointed to the Fed's newly formed committees as a factor shaping his approach, saying Warsh has indicated he'll rely on their findings and is looking for additional tools to more accurately track inflation.
Warsh Is Betting on AI's Upside
In July, Warsh assembled a task force led by venture capitalist Marc Andreessen specifically to evaluate how AI could reshape the economy and inform Fed policy. He has separately argued that AI could let the economy grow faster without triggering inflation, saying in June that AI adoption represents "perhaps as important a change in the economy and business and households that we've had in my adult lifetime."
Markets Have Moved Sharply Toward a Hike
The CME FedWatch tool showed a 66.4% probability of a 25-basis-point hike, up from just 39.6% a week earlier, following Warsh's Jackson Hole remarks, which reaffirmed the Fed's 2% inflation target and said financial conditions were not currently restrictive.
Veteran investor Louis Navellier told MarketDash he'd be "shocked" if the Fed hikes in September, arguing that Warsh's five new task forces haven't yet completed their work, while LPL Financial's Jeffrey Roach said sticky services inflation, combined with resilient economic data, "warrants further tightening."
The Fed's interest rate decision will be announced Wednesday, Sept. 16.
Price Action: The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE: SPY), which tracks the S&P 500, closed 0.39% lower on Monday at $764.09 and fell 0.46% in early pre-market trading on Tuesday. The Invesco QQQ Trust (NASDAQ: QQQ), which tracks the Nasdaq-100, closed 0.05% higher on Monday at $716.76 and fell 0.81% in pre-market trading.
Market data rankings show the Invesco QQQ Trust has a Momentum score in the 71st percentile and a positive price trend across the short, medium and long-term.
Disclaimer: This content was partially produced with the help of AI tools and was reviewed and published by MarketDash editors.
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